Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
